Probability Management – A Cure for the Flaw of Averages
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Dr. Sam L. Savage, Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, Author of The Flaw of Averages: Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, Adjunct Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University. The discipline of probability management leverages big data to let organizations estimate the chances of good and bad outcomes of all sorts, to cure the Flaw of Averages.
See for example how PG&E is applying it to roll up operational risk https://www.informs.org/ORMS-Today/Public-Articles/December-Volume-43-Number-6/Probability-Management-Rolling-up-operational-risk-at-PG-E
The Flaw of Averages states that plans based “average” assumptions are wrong on average. That is, the substitution of single number estimates for uncertainties leads to systematic correctable errors. Yet most plans are still crafted around average demands, prices, completion times, etc., rendering them often worse than useless. This is because quantification of uncertainty has required specialized technology and statistical training.
SIPs go a long way toward curing this affliction by providing unambiguous representations of uncertainties as arrays of simulated or historical data. 501(c)(3) nonprofit, ProbabilityManagement.org, has developed the open SIPmath standard for communicating these arrays along with metadata. It is compatible with virtually any software platform including native Excel and has broad implications in risk management and regulation. Communities of SIPmath practice have grown up at Chevron, Lockheed Martin, PG&E, within the military and in government finance.
Dr. Savage will demonstrate live interactive models in numerous areas of application using Excel files available to all attendees. No prior understating of statistics is assumed, but for those with extensive training in the subject, this presentation will attempt to repair the damage.
Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to the communication and calculation of uncertainty. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, PG&E, and other, and he is joined on the board by Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics. Dr. Savage is author of "The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty" (John WIley & Sons, 2009, 2012), and is an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University as well as a Fellow of the Judge Business School at Cambridge University. He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an audit-able data array for uncertainty. Dr. Savage received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University.
- 2019 September 19 17:30
- 2 h
- Silicon Valley 2019